Welcome
Kettle of Hawks - showcasing effective capital allocation using asymmetric risk-reward. This is not a site meant to be consumed quickly. It’s supposed to be returned to, as a proper resource for developing timeless perspective and reference points.
If this is your first time here, this page will help you understand how to read this publication—and whether it’s worth your time.
This is not a site meant to be consumed quickly. It’s supposed to be returned to, as a proper resource for developing timeless perspective and reference points.
Hawk was my pen name and a group of Hawks is known as a kettle. They tend to gather around thermals, pockets where warm air rises to gain altitude more efficiently. Paragliders use the same strategy, and it is similar to steam rising from a pot.
So Welcome to this Kettle of Hawks at No Time for Bull.
What this publication is
This is a long-horizon publication focused on cycles, capital, resource allocation and decision-making under uncertainty.
The work here is grounded in the history of cycles and 20/20 hindsight. With the added caveat that history does not repeat, but rhymes. Misjudgement in risk and errors tend to come from misunderstanding incentives, timeframes, second-order effects, and lack of perspective from similar situations.
The purpose is not to predict short-term outcomes. It’s to improve orientation—how you frame problems, assess risk, and allocate attention.
How to read the site
If you’re new, a good place to start is in the archives:
What to expect
You should expect:
- Infrequent but deliberate publishing
- Clear language without urgency or hype
- A focus on durability over immediacy
- Ideas that may feel early, uncomfortable, or incomplete
You should not expect:
- Trade alerts or short-term predictions
- Constant content or commentary
- Certainty about timing
- Agreement with consensus views
Silence between posts is intentional. It usually means there’s nothing worth adding yet.
Time horizon
Most analysis here operates on a months-to-years timeframe. And draws heavily from history, authors, and institutions that have been ever-present through time.
Short-term price movements, headlines, and daily narratives matter far less than positioning, balance sheet strength, and regime-level changes. If you optimize for patience, this will feel aligned. If you need constant feedback, it likely won’t.
Subscriptions
You can subscribe to receive new posts by email.
Most content is free. Paid subscriptions, when enabled, are meant to support deeper work and private commentary—not to gatekeep the core ideas. There is no obligation to subscribe to get value from the site.
How to use this going forward
Read selectively. Save pieces that resonate. Ignore the rest.
The goal is not agreement—it’s development of sharper thinking and fewer unforced errors over a full life cycle.
If that sounds useful, you’re in the right place.